ORX Scenarios reflects on the progress made with its community in 2025 and looks ahead to 2026, a year focused on several strategic initiatives to evolve and enhance the service’s core resources and activities.
Reflecting on the work carried out with its community of subscribers over the last 12 months, the ORX Scenarios team has been developing a new programme of work geared towards enhanced data, practice and networking offerings focused on three strategic areas:
- Richer and more informative scenario data to drive better industry sharing and benchmarking
- Enhanced scenario reference tools and information to support process optimisation and industry standardisation
- Industry consensus on the risk management potential of scenarios and improved communication of their strategic value add
This year, we will be working with the community to deliver on these strategic priorities across the service’s three component areas:
Data
Practice
Networking
During 2026, ORX Scenarios subscribers will have opportunities to participate in initiatives designed to advance industry practice in critical areas of scenario practice and influence the future direction of the ORX Scenarios service through regular consultations.
Keep reading to learn more about what we have done over the past year and what we plan to do in 2026 to support our subscribers in enhancing their scenario data, processes and practices.
Data
The backbone of the service remains the ORX Scenario Library. The library grew and evolved significantly in 2025, with the number of scenarios rising to just under 1500 and the profile of key risks changing in line with shifts seen in the wider risk landscape. We commented extensively on the new dataset in a new annual report released for the first time in 2025, the Scenario Landscape Report, in which we describe and explain the major shifts and movements in library data observed over the past twelve months.
Our 2026 data work will focus primarily on a strategic initiative to enhance the structure and capabilities of the ORX Scenario Library. The decommissioning of the Insight platform and the move to ORX’s new Agora platform are an opportunity for the service to undertake a major overhaul of the library informed by discussions with a steering committee of ORX Scenarios subscribers held in Q4 2025 and early 2026.
These discussions have resulted in the development of a new and expanded submission template that we will be asking subscribers to use in the first annual scenario data cycle to take place in the Agora platform (as usual, the data cycle will take place in June and July). The result will be an entirely new scenario dataset enriched with new data fields and improved benchmark filtering. During H1, the ORX Scenarios team will work closely with its community to support and prepare them for the first Agora data cycle and new submission requirements.
In H2, will focus on publishing the new scenario data in the form, initially, of an improved list report offering new peer benchmarking capabilities. The new list report will be accompanied by risk-specific dashboards segmenting the data using the ORX Event Type Operational Risk Reference Taxonomy. As part of a phased overhaul of the library spanning the next 18-24 months, further scenario reports leveraging the new dashboard and benchmarking capabilities offered by Agora will be developed in late 2026 and early 2027.
What to expect in 2026 – This phased approach to enhancing the Scenario Library will involve several key data-related activities:
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A strategic project to enhance the ORX Scenario Library: Following consultations with a steering committee of volunteer subscribers in late 2025 and early 2026 to support the overhaul and redesign of the library as part of the move to our new Agora platform, this year’s annual data cycle will result in the publication of a new list report enhanced with new data fields and new peer benchmark filtering, marking the completion of the first of several library enhancement phases. Phase 2 will extend from Q3 2026 into Q1 2026 and will focus on the development of new reports and dashboards to supplement the enhanced list report, while phase 3 in 2027 will see new ORX standards being built into the library.
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A new Reference Scenario Portfolio: This year, we are developing a new reference tool that will curate Scenario Library data into standardised, consistently structured and easy-to-use scenario examples covering every level 2 risk category in the ORX Event Type Operational Risk Reference Taxonomy. The portfolio will be designed to support effective scenario planning and identification, make scenario creation and development easier, help derive more risk management value from scenarios, and drive better 1LOD engagement. Delivery of the portfolio will be a phased process, with an initial output (covering roughly half of all level 2 risk types in the ORX taxonomy) scheduled for release in H1 2026 followed by the full portfolio in H2.
- A complete series of Scenario Analysis Workbooks: We will continue to roll out the workbook series with a view to covering all level 2 risks in the ORX Event Type Operational Risk Reference Taxonomy for which we hold sufficient data in the ORX Scenario Library (at the time of publication of this blog, the series includes 35 workbooks). Updated versions of existing workbooks will be released alongside new workbooks, and more library data points (including from new fields we will be incorporating into the library in 2026 as a result of the strategic enhancement project) and other ORX data (e.g. ORX News) will be incorporated to further bolster the workbook format.
- Enhanced training on the use of ORX scenario data: We will enhance our provision of training on ORX scenario data by developing new training session formats designed for a range of different audiences (e.g. 2LOD teams, business teams, risk specialists, operational resilience colleagues) and providing a more integrated view of all library resources, including Agora reports, workbooks, and the reference portfolio. The aim will be to promote awareness of the full range of library-related outputs available to subscribers and how they can be of use to teams and colleagues beyond those who engage regularly with ORX Scenarios activities.
In addition, we will be releasing the next iteration of the Scenario Landscape Report reflecting on this year’s scenario data cycle and continuing to consult subscribers on further improvements to the content, format and capabilities of all key library reports and outputs in Agora and on the website.
Practice
In 2025, we continued with a number of established practice activities and outputs, but we also experimented with new formats and initiatives. Among the former was the latest round of scenario process benchmarking, which focused this time on scenario development and assessment based on a more granular and more narrowly scoped matrix than the 2024 exercise. The survey’s key outputs were individual and peer benchmark reports (comparing subscribers’ scenario execution process maturity to nearly 70 other participating institutions) designed to make it easier for subscribers to identify areas for development within their process.
New formats and initiatives trialled in 2025 included a new approach to building our Scenario Development Handbooks by leveraging ORX News data as a basis for developing scenario guidance on key emerging, cross-cutting and/or rapidly evolving risk themes and priorities (such as the Geopolitics Scenario Development Handbook and the Cyber Risk Scenario Development Handbook). We also rolled out an initial iteration of a Scenario Template Catalogue designed to enable subscribers to develop or benchmark their scenario documentation in line with current industry best practice.
What to expect in 2026 – We will combine the continued rollout of useful practice formats with articulating a strategic vision for the future of scenario practice:
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Advancing industry practice in risk management scenario usage: In collaboration with the ORX Scenarios community and the wider ORX Membership, we will be undertaking a Thought Leadership Initiative in 2026 to articulate a vision for the future of scenario analysis as a critical risk management tool offering significant strategic value beyond traditional capital modelling. The vision will be developed in phases with subscribers and members to ensure it is practical, widely supported, and capable of advancing scenario practice. It will be aligned to the ORX Strategic Vision Paper (2025) and set out the pivotal role that scenarios should play in driving successful operational and non-financial risk (ONFR) management.
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Increased focus on the community’s key risk challenges: We will continue to support the ORX Scenarios community with practice resources and discussions focused on a range of broad and emerging risk topics that present specific scenario challenges or are not easily captured in traditional taxonomy-driven scenario analysis work (e.g. AI, ESG, data). This will include further scenario development handbooks based on ORX News data (similar to those published in late 2025 on geopolitical risks and cyber risks) as well as new approaches to leveraging ORX News data alongside the ORX Scenario Library as dynamic sources of trigger information on current and emerging risk topics.
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Process benchmark resubmissions: Throughout 2026, subscribers will have the opportunity to resubmit their 2024 and/or 2025 process benchmark survey responses and thereby gain an updated view on the maturity of their scenario process and practices while also supporting the development of the 2027 benchmark exercise on scenario programme operating models, governance, and roles and responsibilities. The outcomes of the 2024 and 2025 benchmark exercises will feed into an updated iteration of the Scenario Reference Handbook in H2 2026.
Networking
Discussions with the community at the monthly Scenario Working Group (SWG) sessions remained the service’s core networking activity in 2025 alongside smaller-group sessions held on an ad basis to focus on specific challenges requiring in-depth discussion. Alongside these existing formats, 2025 also saw the return to in-person formats with two forums held in London and New York (detailed summaries of which can be found here and here).
This year, we will be maintaining similar formats, but also introducing more opportunities for subscriber involvement in key initiatives with strategic objectives geared towards evolving current industry practice in specific areas of scenario usage and methodology.
What to expect in 2026 – The service’s networking component this year will involve a mix of new and existing formats:
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More subscriber consultations on strategic initiatives: Subscribers will have several opportunities to support strategically important projects this year that will define the future direction of the service, including the Scenario Library enhancement initiative, the 2026 Thought Leadership Initiative, and the design of the Reference Scenario Portfolio.
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Launch of a new Structured Scenarios Working Group: This year, we will be piloting a new working group that will run alongside the existing SWG and provide a forum for users of structured scenario methodologies to discuss current practice, challenges and solutions with other practitioners.
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Continued offer of established networking formats: In line with subscriber feedback, we will continue to offer monthly SWG sessions to support regular industry sharing and benchmarking. As in 2025, we will also hold in-person forums to provide more opportunities for in-depth discussions of the industry’s key strategic priorities in scenario practice and run ad hoc small-group discussions on technical and peer-specific challenges. All formats will continue to be shaped by subscriber-led agendas.
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Reaching a broader audience of scenario stakeholders: The service will continue to serve a core audience of operational risk scenario practitioners. However, in line with the strategic aim of supporting a wider range of scenario use cases, we will be offering subscribers the opportunity to include a broader range of internal scenario stakeholders (e.g. business teams, risk specialists, operational resilience colleagues) in our current networking activities.
Looking forward to 2026
We would like to thank all our subscribers for their contributions throughout 2025 and look forward to collaborating further with the community in 2026. A full annual programme of activity is available on the ORX Scenarios homepage.
If you would like to find out more about the work of ORX Scenarios or get more involved in our community, we would love to hear from you!
