Scenario Library Highlights 2023

Report - September 2023

This report from ORX Scenarios provides an overview of the data collected in the 2023 Scenario Library submission cycle.

The 2023 Scenario Library Highlights report provides an overview of the scenarios contained in the 2023 Scenario Library, including:

• A breakdown of the most common scenarios by categorisation, area impacted, and institution type
• An analysis of the links between the most common direct financial impacts and their associated risk drivers.

The 2023 Scenario Library Highlights report provides:

• An overview of the library and its composition, highlighting the key figures of the new library, including the total number of scenarios collected, the number of contributing institutions, and the most common types of scenarios.
• A breakdown of the library by risk categorisation, area impacted and type of institution, highlighting, among others, the most common types of ORX and Basel taxonomy categories represented in the library and offering a geographical, business line and process-based split of key library data.
• An analysis of key correlations in the reported data, including the most common causes, drivers and impacts of scenarios mapped to the most commonly selected ORX level 2 event types and the most commonly reported financial impacts and their associated risk drivers.
• A regional analysis of the library data, highlighting both the regional split of the data and the risk profile emerging from the library for each of the different regions represented.

The report was updated in September 2023 to also include: 

• In depth regional analysis of the scenario library data, providing further insight into the risk profile of each region including details on key storyline themes, associated risk drivers, financial and non-financial impacts, and more.
• An appendix providing top-line information from the library data on other widely cited categories that did not necessarily fall under the most common category for a given region, as well as analysis of climate-related scenarios, and most common scenarios by severity.

The Scenario Library is a comprehensive tool developed for scenario practitioners that provides access to over 1000 quality scenarios developed by financial institutions from around the world. The library allows ORX Scenarios subscribers to assess and compare their scenarios and scenario portfolios against the industry.

Every year, each subscribing institution submits its most material scenarios through ORX’s secure Insight platform. Following rigorous quality assurance, a database of anonymised scenarios is then published along with accompanying reports available to all subscribers to support analysis, review, and benchmarking of their scenario data.

Following the 2023 annual data cycle, the ORX Scenario Library now contains 1047 scenarios submitted by 64 firms. The most common ORX level 1 risk types against which these scenarios are mapped in the Library are:

1. Information Security (incl. Cyber) (164 scenarios)
2. Conduct (156 scenarios)
3. Transaction Processing and Execution (117 scenarios)

Contacts: