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    Project status

    Project underway

    Open to

    ORX Scenarios subscribers

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    ORX Scenarios

    Phase 1 of the Reference Scenario Portfolio is now available for ORX Scenarios subscribers to download

    About the Reference Scenario Portfolio

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    This year, we're launching a major initiative to develop a new Reference Scenario Portfolio designed to be an essential reference tool for operational risk scenario practitioners. 

    Phase 1 of the Reference Scenario Portfolio has now been published, providing our subscribers with a comprehensive set of curated scenario examples covering nine of the 16 operational risk types in the ORX Event Type Taxonomy. The portfolio has been developed exclusively from information contained in the 2025 ORX Scenario Library, a database of current scenarios submitted by over 75 banks and insurance firms based around the world.

    The portfolio will support scenario planning, identification, and development and help drive more risk management value from scenario work. It will enable organisations to benchmark their scenarios and ensure their own scenario portfolios are both comprehensive and relevant.

    One comprehensive industry portfolio based on
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    1500+

    industry scenarios

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    75+

    financial firms

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    60+

    level 2 risk types

    Why develop a reference portfolio?

    Through the ORX Scenario Library, we maintain a unique and regularly updated database of operational risk scenarios shared by a wide range of financial services organisations, providing a robust foundation for scenario practitioners to create, update, and validate their portfolios.

    One of our strategic goals is to better leverage this dataset to unlock its full value for subscribers and consistently support and enhance scenario process optimisation across the industry. So, we're developing a curated version of our scenario library that will highlight, explain and analyse the full range of distinct scenario topics covered by the 1,487 scenarios in the 2025 ORX Scenario Library.

    The reference portfolio will
    • Standardise the scenario information associated with each scenario topic identified in the ORX Scenario Library to generate an industry-wide reference tool, comparable to ORX’s other available reference libraries
    • Provide practitioners with a curated set of current scenario examples that is comprehensive, based on current industry data and designed to support the use of scenarios for a range of capital and risk management purposes and to optimise different stages of the scenario process

    Phased delivery

    The first phase of the development of the portfolio, covering approximately half of the ORX level 1 risk types, has now been published and is available to all ORX Scenarios subscribers.

    The portfolio currently contains 106 scenario examples in total, each representing a distinct bow-tie including causes, control information, concise and full scenario descriptions, impacts, and risk drivers.

    Phase one

    • Information Security (including Cyber)
    • Technology
    • Data Management
    • Model
    • Business Continuity
    • Third Party
    • Transaction Processing and Execution
    • Statutory Reporting and Tax
    • Legal

    Phase two

    • Physical Security and Safety
    • People
    • Conduct
    • External Fraud
    • Internal Fraud
    • Financial Crime
    • Regulatory Compliance

    Phase 1 of the Reference Scenario Portfolio

    Following the publication of phase 2 of the portfolio, scheduled for Q4 2026, we aim to launch a project to refresh the complete portfolio based on the 2026 ORX Scenario Library dataset. This will provide an opportunity for further dialogue with the community to consider enhancements and the addition of any new fields to ensure the portfolio continues to meet evolving subscriber needs.

    How does the portfolio link to other ORX Scenarios resources?

    While ORX Scenarios subscribers have access to the complete ORX Scenario Library dataset in the Agora platform, the portfolio is designed to ease the process of identifying scenario topics and emerging industry trends from the full dataset. Each scenario example in the portfolio represents a subset of scenarios under a given risk type and includes typical scenario assumptions, categorisations, and a descriptive narrative based on a synthesis of relevant scenarios from the main library dataset.

    The ORX Scenarios team will continue to release workbooks as part of its Scenario Analysis Workbooks series, which provide in-depth guidance on the most prominent scenario topics identified under a given risk type in the ORX Scenario Library. The aim is for the reference portfolio to offer a wider range of scenario examples than the workbooks for each risk type (with the examples in the workbooks providing greater depth by focusing on the most prevalent topics in the dataset but less breadth in not covering all risk topics in the data). It is anticipated that while the workbooks are currently of most use to 2LOD scenario practitioners, the portfolio will represent a tool that can be easily leveraged by the 1LOD as well as their 2LOD partners.

    How will the portfolio help?

    Using data from over 75 firms, the portfolio will provide an industry standard that supports benchmarking, scenario portfolio gap analysis, scenario planning and identification and scenario development and assessment. It can also be used to inform discussions of risk management outcomes and actions arising from scenario analysis. Overall, the portfolio will help optimise key stages of the scenario process and maximise the management value of scenarios.

    Key scenario process optimisation benefits

    • Scenario planning and identification: the portfolio offers a comprehensive set of scenario options under each ORX level 2 risk type from which users can select the most relevant scenario topics for their risk exposure or profile.
    • Scenario development: each scenario topic is associated with scenario descriptions and assumptions drawn exclusively from information contained in the ORX Scenario Library, offering a template to build out full scenarios and enabling more efficient scenario development and assessment.
    • Universal audience: developed as a tool for both the 1LOD and 2LOD, the portfolio is designed to be usable within the business and across lines of defence as an easy-to-understand, consumable, and comprehensive reference tool.

    Key risk management benefits

    • Risk management tool: while the portfolio is use-agnostic, it aligns to our strategic initiative of supporting risk management and non-capital uses of scenarios, primarily through the identification and development of scenarios covering a comprehensive range of manifestations of each level 2 risk type in the ORX Event Type Reference Taxonomy
    • Control effectiveness: the portfolio supports identification of gaps and weaknesses in firms’ preventative and mitigating control environment by associating several controls with each scenario example using level 2 control categories from the ORX Reference Control Library

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