Scenario Development Handbook: Geopolitics

Forming part of a series of handbooks offering practical guidance to scenario practitioners on developing scenarios for emerging risk themes, this document, like others in the series, provides: 

• Up-to-date data-driven scenario analysis guidance based on current geopolitical risk data and trends 

• A comprehensively standardised view of currently available data, with key scenario assumptions mapped to relevant ORX categorisations (event, causes, controls, impacts) 

• Example scenarios covering key storyline themes identified from the ORX News Geopolitics Data Deep Dive 

How to use the handbook

• Identify and assess your exposure to geopolitical risks and, therefore, the thematic focus, storyline, and qualitative assumptions of your own geopolitical risk scenario against current real-world data
• Ensure you have considered all relevant causes, impacts, and controls involved in your scenario and assessed their relationships against the most common associations identified from current real-world data
• Build a new geopolitical risk scenario or review a pre-existing scenario incorporating geopolitical considerations, including its storyline and qualitative and quantitative components